The Reserve Bank of India on Friday said the state governments' tendency to park their large cash-surplus balances in market instruments like 14-day treasury bills reflects imprudent fund management strategy that earn less return. Instead, they should use this money to reduce fiscal deficit.
The deficit stood over Rs 8 trillion in the first seven months of the current financial year. Non-tax revenues, comprising transfers from the RBI and dividends of the public sector units, shored up the Centre's revenues.
The Reserve Bank (RBI) resisted a 'raid' planned by some in the government to extract Rs 2-3 lakh crore from its balance sheet in 2018 to meet populist spending in run-up to general elections, Viral Acharya, who was deputy governor at RBI at that time, has written.
The government on Wednesday said it will borrow Rs 7.24 lakh crore in the first half of 2021-22 fiscal to meet resources to perk up the economy hit by the coronavirus pandemic. According to the Budget 2021-22, the government's gross borrowing was estimated at Rs 12.05 lakh crore in the financial year beginning April 1. "In the Budget, we had announced that there would be a gross borrowing of Rs 12.05 lakh crore and net borrowing of Rs 9.37 lakh crore. "In the first half of 2021-22, we would be borrowing Rs 7.24 lakh crore, which is 60.06 per cent of the gross issuances," economic affairs secretary Tarun Bajaj said. He said the government would issue 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, 14-year, 30-year, and 40-year securities.
India's exports in January dipped by 6.58 per cent to $32.91 billion, as against $35.23 billion in the same month last year, according to the data released by the commerce ministry on Wednesday. Trade deficit in January stood at $17.75 billion.
S&P Global Ratings on Thursday affirmed India's sovereign rating at 'BBB-' with a stable outlook and said sound economic fundamentals will underpin growth over the next 2-3 years. The stable outlook on the long-term rating reflects S&P's view that India's strong economy and healthy revenue growth will support its weak fiscal settings. "S&P Global Ratings affirmed its 'BBB-' long-term and 'A-3' short-term unsolicited foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on India.
The bulk of states' revenue comes from the devolution from the Centre's divisible tax pool, GST, VAT on petroleum, and excise duty on alcohol.
The government has revised gold import data, bringing down numbers for November by $5 billion to $9.84 billion, possibly to rectify double accounting of inbound shipments. According to revised data of the commerce ministry arm Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCIS), gold import numbers have been slashed since April 2024, revealing excess imports of about $11.7 billion during the first eight months of 2024-25.
The budget underscores government's previous emphasis on capex to sustain near-term recovery from the pandemic, while simultaneously paving the way for longer-term restructuring of the economy, it stated. But the various spending initiatives are not offset by any significant announcements related to further increase revenue generation; rather, the announced revenue-related measures are aimed at other objectives such as fostering startup innovation, ensuring more equitable treatment for cooperatives and state employees, and promoting tax compliance through simplification, Christian de Guzman, a senior vice-president, sovereign risk group, Moody's Investors Service, said.
In the midst of third wave of COVID-19, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has come up with an impactful Budget which is balanced, fiscally prudent and growth-oriented, the USA India Chamber of Commerce has said. President of the Boston-based USA India Chamber of Commerce (USAIC) Karun Rishi, however, said it is a matter of concern that the budget lacks tangible measures to increase revenue generation. "Opting to keep the fiscal deficit at 6.9 per cent and increase capital expenditure by 35 per cent is a masterstroke. "The annual budget estimates the effective capital expenditure of Rs 10.68 lakh crore in 2022-23, making up about 4.1 per cent of the GDP," he said. "A phenomenal increase in the government's capital expenditure is likely to facilitate the expenditures on infrastructure and create jobs.
India's trade deficit has fallen to 10-month low of $14.9 billion in February on improving exports and a sharp drop in imports.
India's exports contracted 12.2 per cent to $34.48 billion in December 2022, mainly due to global headwinds, and the trade deficit widened to $23.76 billion during the same period, according to official data released on Monday. Imports in December 2022 also declined 3.5 per cent to $58.24 billion as against $60.33 billion in the year-ago period. In December 2021, exports stood at $39.27 billion and the trade deficit was at $21.06 billion.
'Our attempt to honour the taxpayer has been since 2014 and more actively since 2019-2020 onwards.'
A combination of factors, including heavy investments in US Treasury bonds and dollar sales at a healthy profit, facilitated the Indian central bank in transferring a record surplus of Rs 2.11 trillion to the government for 2023-24 (FY24). The RBI's dollar purchases increased in FY24, supported by robust capital inflows endorsing the economy's health.
A high CAD puts pressure on the rupee, which in turn makes imports expensive and fuels inflation.
Last year, the government had borrowed Rs 4.37 lakh crore.
Foreign investors have injected close to Rs 33,700 crore in domestic equities in this month so far primarily due to interest rate cut in the US and resilience of the Indian market. This also marks the second highest inflow in a month in this year so far, the last one being in March, when Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) infused Rs 35,100 crore, data with the depositories showed. Going ahead, the trend of FPIs buying is likely to continue in the coming days, V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services, said.
Business cycle funds aim to optimise returns by aligning their portfolios with different phases of the economic cycle. First-time investors, those who prefer stable sector allocations, and those averse to volatility should steer clear of them.
Exports contracted by 2.6 per cent to $34.47 billion in September even as the country's merchandise trade deficit narrows to $19.37 billion during the month under review, according to the government data released on Friday. Easing commodity prices helped in cutting down the country's import bill by 15 per cent to $53.84 billion in September, the 10th consecutive month of decline. During April-September this fiscal, exports contracted by 8.77 per cent to $211.4 billion.
Fitch Ratings has cut India's economic growth forecast to 8.7 per cent for the current fiscal but raised GDP growth projection for FY23 to 10 per cent, saying the second COVID-19 wave delayed rather than derail the economic recovery. In its APAC Sovereign Credit Overview, Fitch Ratings said India's 'BBB-/Negative' sovereign rating "balances a still-strong medium-term growth outlook and external resilience from solid foreign- reserve buffers, against high public debt, a weak financial sector and some lagging structural factors". The 'Negative' outlook, it said, reflects uncertainty over the debt trajectory following the sharp deterioration in India's public finances due to the pandemic shock.
This move will enable it to incur higher-than-mandated borrowing, and possibly spending, till the 2024 Lok Sabha election cycle.
The Indian rupee depreciated a modest 2.9 per cent in the first nine months of the current fiscal, performing better than other currencies like the Canadian Dollar, South Korean Won and the Brazilian Real, according to the Economic Survey tabled in Parliament on Friday. The value of the Indian Rupee (INR) is market-determined, with no target or specific level or band.
Assocham said even if an investment revival were to happen, it would be a time lag of at least 18 months before it reflects in the manufacturing sector.
Benchmark equity indices climbed nearly 1 per cent on Wednesday on buying in HDFC Bank and Reliance Industries. Investors are eyeing the two important events lined up ahead -- the interim budget and the US Fed interest rate decision -- to derive further cues from. Recovering all the early lost ground, the 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 612.21 points or 0.86 per cent to settle at 71,752.11.
Lead indicators suggest that domestic current account deficit (CAD) is likely to reduce in 2023, while macro-economic stability has received a boost from inflation being brought back to the official tolerance band, according to the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) January 2023 Bulletin. "With the merchandise trade deficit reaching an all-time high of $83.5 billion in a quarter, and a rise in net outgo from the income account, the current account deficit increased to 4.4 per cent of GDP in Q2FY23," the State of the Economy article in the bulletin said. "It is noteworthy, however, that the CAD for Q1 was revised down from 2.8 per cent to 2.2 per cent on account of downward adjustment in Customs data.
Exports in June rose by 23.52 per cent to $40.13 billion while the trade deficit ballooned to a record level of $26.18 billion mainly due to jump in gold and crude oil imports, the government data said on Thursday. The country's export growth in May was 20.55 per cent. Imports expanded by 57.55 per cent to $66.31 billion in June compared to the year-ago month, the data showed.
Expressing his satisfaction over the government's move to slash fiscal deficit target, Das said it will help improve investment by the private sector as crowding out impact will be less.
For current financial year, govt plans to borrow Rs 2.88 trillion in the first half of 2018-19, out of Rs 6.05 trillion planned for entire year
'If in our cities, all urban bus transport services are free, then the taxpayers are paying for it, or if electricity were to be made free, that's a huge cost to the rest of the people'
There are several welcome standalone reforms, but these do not add up to a coherent strategy to achieve a $5 trillion economy or secure Aatmanirbharta, observes Rathin Roy.
'During his stint as prime minister, he got 270 million people out of poverty.' 'This, according to the World Bank, is the fastest compression of poverty anywhere in the world.' Arvind Mayaram, the former finance secretary, recalls his encounters with Dr Manmohan Singh.
To offer additional support at the low end of the income ranges, the Centre will consider a large-scale jump in exemption rates under the old income-tax regime in the vote on account, or interim Budget, according to a senior official in the know. Those will include an extension of the income tax exemption rates close to Rs 7 lakh and additional measures for women farmers.
Highlights of the Union Budget 2024-25 presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in Lok Sabha on Tuesday.
The macroeconomic environment has changed dramatically for the better.
The dividends for the economy from such a rapid rise in capital expenditure would be huge, observes A K Bhattacharya.
The government's fiscal deficits have reduced over the last five years.
The deficit for April-June was at $21.8 billion or 4.9 per cent of GDP.
PSU divestment, LIC IPO, fiscal deficit: Budget 2021 marks a clear change in the Modi government's stance from fiscal conservatism to growth orientation.
The country's exports rose by 23.69 per cent to $34.06 billion in January on healthy performance by engineering, petroleum and gems and jewellery segments even as trade deficit widened to $17.94 billion during the month, according to provisional data of the commerce ministry. Imports in January grew by 23.74 per cent to $52.01 billion, the data, released on Tuesday, showed. Trade deficit widened to $17.94 billion during the month as against $14.49 billion in the same month last year.
